If you establish targets and measures, for example for 10 years, and also wish to examine their effects, you must first have an idea of how it would be if no new energy policy targets and measures were implemented over the same period.
On the basis of a wide range of data directly or indirectly related to energy consumption, experts have estimated how high our consumption would be in 2010 if energy policy did not change. This also had to take into account, for example, demographic prognoses and economic development prognoses for this period.
Only when we have figures about how power consumption would develop without additional measures, can we estimate which new measures will achieve which improvements. The so-called REFERENCE SCENARIO was developed for this purpose.